My piece on the Pricetags blog on some innovative work commissioned by the New Zealand Ministry of Transport questioning whether traffic growth is every likely to resume.
From our Auckland correrspondent Darren Davis:
New Zealand’s Ministry of Transport has done a bunch of work on future demand which, as far as I know, is the first time a Government has been prepared to fundamentally challenge the view that traffic growth will continue unabated indefinitely.
It included the following typical graph beloved of urbanists showing how traffic projections have been proven wrong only to be recalibrated form the new base to show that the resumption of traffic growth is just around the corner. The difference this time is that the Ministry of Transport is using this graph to demonstrate how wrong past predictions have been, rather than the usual “traffic growth is just around the corner” scenario. Of note, since its peak in 2004, light passenger vehicle kilometres travelled per person (VKT per capita) in New Zealand has fallen by 8%, whereas in other western countries…
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